"[19], In September 2022, Cahaly, in an interview with Split Ticket, acknowledged methodological changes from his polling of the 2020 United States elections.[20]. And heres what kind of bugs me: This turnout of young people from campuses didnt happen in 2020 because they werent on the campuses. In 2021 Cahaly and Trafalgar had the most accurate GA Sen Runoff Poll & second most accurate GA Sen Special Runoff Poll. Cahaly gave his this. "We were very pleased with how close we were across the board," Cahaly said, pointing to the presidential election in Wisconsin and the Senate race in North Carolina as examples of where Trafalgar Group's predictions were especially close. It's unclear what went wrong. ", Hochul: All we have to do is see the name trafalgar. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google, Rick Scott Is Unfortunately Right About Novak Djokovic. A significant part of Cahaly's belief in his polling results is tied to the anonymous poll respondent strategy Trafalgar Group uses. All rights reserved. 770-542-8170 | Data Privacy Policy, cable news shows such as FOXNews, CNN, and Newsmax, Pollster Who Got it Right in 2016 Does it Again,, the folks at Trafalgar had a great year, Winners and losers from 2020s election article, National Survey Chinese Property near Military Bases, National Survey US Taxpayer Money/China. And in Washington, Democrat Patty Murraythe 1point favorite in Trafalgar pollingwas leading by more than a dozen points as of Thursday, her reelection to the U.S. Senate already decided days earlier. In the Colorado Senate race, he predicted Republican Joe O'Dea would lose to incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet in a 2-point squeaker. He has gained media attention in 2016 for predicting correctly that President Donald Trump would win in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. If youll notice, we dont usually even respond to what most people say. But it seemed like turnout was good generally, right? Cahaly is often quoted in national and global publications and on cable news shows such as FOXNews, CNN, and Newsmax. Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 1, 2021. And theres a difference. Trafalgar had the most accurate polls in WI Pres (exact), FL Pres (1.2% off), NC Pres (.6% off), NC Sen (exact), AZ Sen (.4% off), TX Pres (.2% off), OH Pres, MO Pres, LA Pres (.6% off), & LA Sen. HANNITY OUTLINES WHAT'S MOTIVATING MIDTERM VOTERS AHEAD OF NOVEMBER. And when you look at what their priorities are, you know, on the national issues, the Democrats seem to spend a great deal of time on climate change and social issues, you know, social reformer, equality, equity issues. The president surprised and angered some Democrats by declining to veto a GOP effort to block a D.C. bill. ", On the 2022 midterm elections, Cahaly said that while initial speculation is that Republicans could gain seats in the House and Senate, "we are a political lifetime away from midterms. The 4-Day Week Is for White-collar Workers. We havent really seen anything that goes backward from any of the polls that have I have any respect for any of the polls that have decent error.. Hundreds of people violently detained during a protest in the Bronx could receive $21,500 each. Pollster Robert Cahaly on accuracy in political polling - Yahoo! News So that was not a normal thing. How accurate is Robert Cahaly's Trump prediction? 2016 pollster - MEAWW You consistently overestimated Republican support by quite a bit an average of 7.5 percent in the Senate races.